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Perhaps I’ve misjudged the situation, but I hope facts will prove me wrong. However, it seems the attention the iPhone Fold has garnered isn’t entirely based on valid reasons. People certainly appreciate innovation, but not all innovations are truly embraced.

This is not unfamiliar. We have seen products generate a huge buzz upon release, only to quickly lose popularity over time. They are cutting-edge and eye-catching enough, but even after many years, it is still difficult to say that they have become “necessities”.

From this perspective, the iPhone Fold feels somewhat familiar. It’s the culmination of years of technological accumulation, boasting excellent engineering and a high-spec launch, but the real question is—does it offer a sufficiently clear and compelling reason to use it? If it lacks matching application scenarios and ecosystem support, do users really need it?

The key question is: where exactly do the so-called “quantifiable improvements” of the iPhone Fold lie? More importantly, can these improvements truly translate into sustained purchasing power, or are they merely a response to competitive pressure?

Join the team after everyone disperses

The entry of foldable devices into the market comes against the backdrop of a mature market where the winners and losers have already been decided – traditional smartphones. Despite leading manufacturers investing heavily in engineering resources for hinge structures and flexible glass, the foldable form factor has always remained a very small segment of the overall market.

Foldable devices have always remained a niche product. After years of development, it’s more like an expensive technological experiment. Even with continuous technological advancements, market enthusiasm has remained limited. This is why, when the iPhone Fold was put on the agenda, it felt like it was arriving late, after the party was almost over and the hype had died down.

In terms of foldable form, the iPhone Fold faces a market that is not only mature but also stagnant, with almost no large-scale demand that has been suppressed but not yet released.

The current consensus timeline points to a 2026 release, placing it at the very high end of the current iPhone lineup, possibly under the name “Fold” or even higher. This positioning itself suggests that it’s more of a symbolic halo product—a showcase of technological and design capabilities.

Obsession with “perfect crease”

The hardware rumors surrounding this foldable device have outlined a highly refined design blueprint. Multiple sources consistently point to a book-style folding design: the inner screen is approximately 7.7 to 7.8 inches, and the outer screen is approximately 5.5 inches. The core of the entire design almost entirely revolves around an old problem—the crease, this tiny indentation that plagues all foldable devices.

Rumors suggest that the project aimed for a near-invisible folding effect, employing a new generation of ultra-thin glass and a complex hinge system, with a metal support structure distributing the stress on the screen. The overall thickness has also been compressed to its limit: approximately 4.5 mm when unfolded and about 9.6 mm when closed, potentially placing it among the thinnest mobile devices currently available.

To achieve this slimness and completeness, compromises appear to have begun to emerge. Rumors suggest that some mature biometric solutions may be modified or replaced in exchange for a more compact internal structure.

These trade-offs indicate that the design focus is shifting towards the form and aesthetic perfection of the device itself, rather than completely continuing existing usage habits.

The lingering ghost of Vision Pro

The entire narrative evokes a strong sense of déjà vu. Just recently, the highly anticipated Vision Pro space computing device was unveiled, undoubtedly a pinnacle of engineering, yet it addressed a question almost no one had truly considered. It was, and still is, a technological marvel, but its extremely high price tag was matched by a market response that was, at best, barely acceptable.

The foldable iPhone Fold seems to be following a similar path: years of quiet development, focusing on overcoming extremely complex hardware challenges, and the final product will likely be priced significantly higher than current flagship models. Leaked information generally points to a pricing level significantly above the mainstream consumer segment.

This strategy pre-emptively screens users before release—limiting the target group to a small number of extreme enthusiasts willing to pay a premium for cutting-edge technology. Like its predecessor, the iPhone Fold is likely to once again become an example of “finding demand for solutions.”

A crease-free display is certainly superior, but is it enough to justify the huge cost difference? While a slimmer body does improve the feel, can it truly change the way we use it? History has already provided an answer: engineering prowess and technological sophistication alone are not enough to open up the market. Without high-frequency usage scenarios commensurate with its cost and complexity, the iPhone Fold may also be destined to become a highly praised but rarely integrated into everyday life, expensive technological marvel.

A whole new level of halo products

In the end, the iPhone Fold was less a mainstream product aimed at the masses and more a statement of attitude. Its primary goal was perhaps not to achieve tens of millions of sales in its first year—although some optimistic predictions suggest that its shipments could reach tens of millions—but rather to uphold the narrative of innovation itself and ensure that the discourse of “most advanced smartphone” would not fall into other hands.

This is a classic example of the logic behind halo products: their significance doesn’t entirely depend on their own sales volume, but rather on making the entire product line appear more attractive through comparison. They serve an image-building function, rather than being the core engine of a replacement cycle.

The problem is that the breakthroughs users truly expect are often not so dramatic. Longer battery life, more durable screens, and more affordable purchase options—these seemingly mundane improvements are actually closer to real needs.

In contrast, the iPhone Fold focuses a lot of effort on refining its mechanical structure and aesthetic form, seemingly circumventing these most basic and realistic demands.

In a sense, it perfectly responded to industry-level pressures, pushing the folding form factor to the pinnacle of engineering and design. However, whether this perfection truly corresponds to widespread real-world needs remains an open question.

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